"Safinah narrated to me, he said: 'The Messenger of Allah(s.a.w) said: "Al-Khilafah will be in my Ummah for thirty years, then there will be monarchy after that."' Then Safinah said to me: 'Count the Khilafah of Abu Bakr,' then he said: 'Count the Khilafah of 'Umar and the Khilafah of 'Uthman.' Then he said to me: 'Count the Khilafah of 'Ali."' He said: "So we found that they add up to thirty years." Sa'eed said: "I said to him: 'Banu Umaiyyah claim that the Khilafah is among them.' He said: 'Banu Az-Zarqa' lie, rather they are a monarchy, among the worst of monarchies."'
Hadith Text & Context
"Safinah narrated to me, he said: 'The Messenger of Allah(s.a.w) said: "Al-Khilafah will be in my Ummah for thirty years, then there will be monarchy after that."' Then Safinah said to me: 'Count the Khilafah of Abu Bakr,' then he said: 'Count the Khilafah of 'Umar and the Khilafah of 'Uthman.' Then he said to me: 'Count the Khilafah of 'Ali."' He said: "So we found that they add up to thirty years." Sa'eed said: "I said to him: 'Banu Umaiyyah claim that the Khilafah is among them.' He said: 'Banu Az-Zarqa' lie, rather they are a monarchy, among the worst of monarchies."'
Reference: Jami` at-Tirmidhi 2226 | Book: Chapters On Al-Fitan | Author: Jami' at-Tirmidhi
Meaning of Khilafah & Monarchy
The Prophet ﷺ distinguished between two systems: Khilafah (rightly-guided caliphate) following prophetic methodology, and monarchy (mulk) based on hereditary rule. The thirty-year period comprises Abu Bakr (2y), Umar (10y), Uthman (12y), and Ali's caliphate until Hasan's abdication (6y), totaling precisely thirty years.
True Khilafah requires consultation (shura), adherence to Quran and Sunnah, and accountability. Monarchy often prioritizes dynasty preservation over religious principles.
Historical Fulfillment
The Umayyad dynasty's claim to caliphate is rejected as they established hereditary kingship. "Banu Az-Zarqa" (Sons of the Blue) refers to Umayyad's distinctive dark eyes or their lavish blue clothing, symbolizing worldly attachment.
This prophecy accurately predicted Islam's political transition from righteous leadership to worldly kingship, serving as a criterion to distinguish legitimate Islamic governance from nominal Muslim rulership.
Scholarly Commentary
Imam Tirmidhi classified this hadith as hasan sahih (sound). Scholars note this timeline confirms the special status of the Rashidun Caliphs and serves as warning against conflating later dynasties with prophetic Khilafah.
The hadith doesn't negate potential future righteous caliphates but specifies the initial golden era. It teaches Muslims to evaluate rulers by prophetic standards rather than titles.